964RS values

[RSGulp]

First of all, I don't intend to turn this thread into a boring discussion about Porsche values generally plummeting and that the future is all doom and gloom - lets leave that to PH.

Secondly, I assume like most of the RS owners on here I didn't buy my car as a financial investment, although I do have an interest in what is happening to the 964RS market both in UK and Europe.

There seems to be a lot of discussion over on PH about RSs being overpriced and forecasts that there will be a 'market correction' sometime soonish. Also every other thread is unfortunately a discussion about general Porsche values decreasing (although most seem to forget that prices for most second hand 'daily driver' type cars are generally lower at the moment - it's not just Porsche specifically).

The way I see it is that in all markets the inbalance between numbers of buyers and sellers determines the price - supply/demand sets the price and all that.

Now I have noticed a decline in the number of posts asking "where to get a good RS etc" so I assume the number of potential buyers is currently low. BUT I also haven't noticed a glut of adverts for 964RSs for sale and owners getting edgy about the values of their cars in the future.

The way I see it is if we all sit tight and carry on owning and enjoying our cars just like we are doing, I can't see how there can be the predicted market correction - because their just isn't a 'market' at the moment...

...just a bunch of enthusiastic owners who know what they've got, are enjoying driving their cars and probably don't really care what the market is doing anyway because they're not likely to be selling their RS anytime soon. []

 

[Rotorhead]

The general concensus seems to be that the top end, 'blue chip' collectables, particularly with important provenance or historic racing eligibility, will remain in demand - propelled by growth from the new wave of serious collectors in the emerging economies. But the 'enthusiat' and 'recreational' end of the market will be very vulnerable and values will suffer.

 

[jason]

Its the same as everything - supply and demand. If there are 100 people looking for an RS and none for sale values go up until it encourages someone to sell. If there are 100 RSs for sale and no buyers values go down until the price gets to a position where someone is encouraged to buy. Never been any different.....never will. []

 

[ChrisW]

Whilst I understand he question, my answer is one merely of perspective. The value of my pension plans is perilously close to zero --- well, say an annuity of £10k pa on which I could not live without resizing. So, the cars I have are my fun and my pension plan. The Footsie fell last week by 2.5% in one day. Should I tally the resale value of my "fun" ? Nope. One day I may worry about whether my children's lawnmower may be trimming my toes, but I will most certainly not be worrying about my pension. And if I need the money in the meantime, whatever the price, I can sell my cars. I can't sell my Pension ! And, one day, no manufacturer in the World will be able to manufacture a quality and intimacy of transport to compare with 964 and 993RS' I may be a product of my era, but these cars turn me on. One day I will be dead.

 

[964RS]

These 964RS and 993RS are all less than 17 years old. We've only seen one cycle in prices of these cars so far. That is typically the depreciation after sale and then the appreciation with the rise in popularity of trackdays and alternative investments. Born at the peak of the last recession a few of the LHD lightweights went on to drop as low as £20k and currently some are realising £60k. Ironically: the original purchasers of the cars when new, be they investors or enthusiasts, if they have retained them are perhaps able to recoup the majority of the purchase price. This could be viewed as free motoring or recovering their loss. They for one may have not made one penny on their purchase although I've yet to meet someone who still has their RS from new. Overall the 64/93 RS prices appear in the range of £32k to £122k. Such a wide spread of variations and histories mean it is difficult to put a trend on prices yet and estimates are based on the prices shared with others or those which can be guessed from asking prices of cars sold. It is likely if I live to 4 score years that I will to see further cycles in the prices. I, for one, will not be disappointed with a drop in values as mine is not regarded as an investment - rather an opportunity to own a marvel of engineering over the might of the bean-counter. I arrived late to the party but I am so delighted with my RS and I am really fighting the urge to become obsessive about set-up, corner-weighting, engine mods.

 

[seawise]

just enjoy them - if i had to sell any of mine i'd be so bloody depressed i honestly don't care what i'd get for them. actually come to think of it the less they are worth, the less the reason to sell if the need arises to raise capital..... see, there is always a positive side.

 

[clubsport]

They may well have become slightly over priced,not so much on forum banter, but dealer mark up!,,it is a relatively small market...if 10 people decide they need to sel in the UKl due to credit crunch/mortgage or even perception reasons, it could give the impression the market is in freefall...I am not suggesting that is the case......Like everything else these cars are only worth what someone will pay. One advantage many if us have is that we effectively have a european based asset in a lhd car which can feel the benefit of further depreciation of the £ vs the euro,,,,short sterling and swap curves indicate rate cuts in the uk as the next move, where as Europe still appears to be more concerned about inflation,rather than impending recession,,in fact sweden (outside of EU) actually raised rates last week!.... Personally I feel these cars will be worth less next year, I am not selling mine as it took 2 years to find the bl**dy thing!...We have seen this before when the housing market turned, classic/hobby cars held in for a while and then took a bit of a bath...... I know quite a few people looking to sell extra cars (non RS Porsche) and it is just not happening.without bid!. We have done ok out if these cars in terms of fun and the added benefit of retained value/equity while other Porsche products have gone into meltdown, worth tracking the market if you need to sell, I wouldn't hold out for any short term liquidity or improvement in price though....

 

[jason]

Its also worth pointing out the worse the stock exchange does you also get money pouring into classic cars (as they are better investments than elsewhere) - whenever there has been a crash in the stock market it has been followed by a rise in classic car prices. Still doesn't change the fact its all supply and demand related and as yours is unlikely to come out the garage Rich never mind be sold you should be ok [][][][]

 

[clubsport]

Jason, interesting one that ref classic cars and equity indices....I am surprised there is such a definite correlation to be honest, unfortunately can't find any trustworthy classic car data to use, plus classic cars are not exactly homogenous for comparison purposes! I would have thought some classic car purchases would have been funded by equity gains,,,if they were to fall,you would have less £££ to fund the purchase of cars with, let alone liquidations to cover the shortfall.......despite the falls in stox some of the p/e and yields of blue chip companies that are less likely to suffer in a downturn/retrenchment are actually looking quite attractive, thats before you consider the liquidity premium compared to classics in the current environment. Rich, I wouldn't worry, Des will be along soon comforting you that even a 964RS replica will be worth £100k by Christmas, let alone the real deal Leichtbau that has seen some action! []

 

[jason]

Paul - what happens is that when investors feel stocks are far too risky to invest in around the time of a crash they look for other sorts of areas to invest in...and classic cars tends to be one area. Hence for a couple years after a crash they tend to rise. If the stock market crashes and housing market crashes and we all go into recession and business and individuals are all hit financially then nothing benefits around that time and everything takes a hit...

 

[clubsport]

Hhmmm...I am ok with the market movements, but unfortunately I don't think it is quite that simple.... Have classics not risen for a couple of years now???? First off, past performance is no guarantee of future values etc........ real money adjusted the uk stock market has not really gone anywhere for the last 10 years, it has been fine of you bank the divis, but hasn't exactly over performed,,,,money has gone into property and as we see of late classic cars.... As you recall and I mentioned earier on this thread, classics held in last time the housing market turned...for a while,,,,classic cars literally crashed spectacularly.....if everyone sold their stocks at the high to get into classic cars, which they sold at the high to go into cash....there would be no financial crashes....these are mostly caused by sentiment and lack of liquidity, sellers not being able to sell at the first price they consider reasonable. When stock markets and property fall the monetary authorities, usually inject sufficient funds to restart the patient,,,,this time it is slightly different as we have had the cheap money already to bring the patient round, the only thing is the doctors (banks?) need saving this time, money is not cheap or as easy to obtain as it was in the last 5 years...this is where the problem is likely to come from this time and why the past may have been slightly different. I am not advocating a crash, that was purely an example of the past to which you refer and there will always be the uber rich who buy Real Bugattis,, but we have already seen quite a few more grass roots classics suffer in price. I am not totally convinced the Us treasury GSE rescue over the weekend will be a problem free solution, we have seen UK financial stocks up 10% in the first hour of trading,,,,doubt this has any short term effect on classic car values, which is where I see a poor correlation between stocks and classic cars as asset classes.

 

[Jamie Summers]

Clubsport, I agree entirely with what you say........ The main point here is that in such a small market (964 / 993 RS) they price is largely dictated by the marginal buyer / seller. Over the last couple of years there has been sufficient buying interest for these cars to keep forcing the offer price higher ie the marginal purchaser will still pay the price. As the crunch bites, the marginal purchaser no longer feels the need to chase the offer price, believing the price will come back to him. Throw a few extra sellers into the market (it only needs to be a few) and the price moves to the bottom of the bid / offer spread. What now determines the price is how desperate the marginal seller is to liquidate his asset. This effect will be accentuated by the specialist dealers who will anticipate these moves and will bid as low as they can for stock believing that there will be distressed sellers. The whole thing can then become self perpetuating ........... We all understand the theory, but are we actually seeing the evidence in real prices - not yet, so it seems ?? I fully expect that over the next twelve months or so the market will start to be skewed by a slight imbalance in sellers vs buyers - cars will be priced on the bid, not the offer. However, our cars are neither rare enough nor are they valuable enough to be affected by the type of hysteria and speculation that engulfed the classic car market in the late '80s. They are (relatively) a useable classic with a good following, so as long as you keep that in mind and don't expect them to "outperform" any particular asset class or index, then I doubt you will be disappointed - neither are you likely to lose your shirt ....... Jamie

 

[chfs911]

Who cares as mine is for driving. [] It is like a house you need it to live in, only with a RS you need it to know you are not dead.

 

[Stewart H]

Everyone I took round the Ring in mine, the weekend before last (my first visit there) said they couldn't believe how planted the car felt and how well it handled. That's enough for me not to give a toss about what happens to the prices, even if it means I bought at the top of the market. It's a car you can love and unlike the ex, the love goes on and on and the RS won't run off with a chippy. []

 

[Hacki]

ORIGINAL: ChrisW One day I will be dead.

Me too. But: Not yet! Don´t think about value when I give it handful. Hacki P.S.: In which currency does the engine roar?

 

[jason]

ORIGINAL: clubsport Hhmmm...I am ok with the market movements, but unfortunately I don't think it is quite that simple.... Have classics not risen for a couple of years now???? First off, past performance is no guarantee of future values etc........ real money adjusted the uk stock market has not really gone anywhere for the last 10 years, it has been fine of you bank the divis, but hasn't exactly over performed,,,,money has gone into property and as we see of late classic cars.... As you recall and I mentioned earier on this thread, classics held in last time the housing market turned...for a while,,,,classic cars literally crashed spectacularly.....if everyone sold their stocks at the high to get into classic cars, which they sold at the high to go into cash....there would be no financial crashes....these are mostly caused by sentiment and lack of liquidity, sellers not being able to sell at the first price they consider reasonable. When stock markets and property fall the monetary authorities, usually inject sufficient funds to restart the patient,,,,this time it is slightly different as we have had the cheap money already to bring the patient round, the only thing is the doctors (banks?) need saving this time, money is not cheap or as easy to obtain as it was in the last 5 years...this is where the problem is likely to come from this time and why the past may have been slightly different. I am not advocating a crash, that was purely an example of the past to which you refer and there will always be the uber rich who buy Real Bugattis,, but we have already seen quite a few more grass roots classics suffer in price. I am not totally convinced the Us treasury GSE rescue over the weekend will be a problem free solution, we have seen UK financial stocks up 10% in the first hour of trading,,,,doubt this has any short term effect on classic car values, which is where I see a poor correlation between stocks and classic cars as asset classes.

Paul I run large financial services networks and international economics is my thing. I disagree with a lot of what you say but I'm not going to bore everyone to death on a car forum...plus there are better things to do. So we will have to agree to disagree mate[] But its still all supply and demand whatever anyone says[]

 

[jason]

Jamie - so that will be supply and demand then. Who cares, as the above say and AS MY SIG HAS ALWAYS SAID........

 

[carreraboy]

ORIGINAL: Hacki

ORIGINAL: ChrisW One day I will be dead.

Me too. But: Not yet! Don´t think about value when I give it handful. Hacki P.S.: In which currency does the engine roar?

Eric Von Daniken ..... "The Chariots of the Gods" .... The Gods would have pedalled a 964RS ..... found on an ancient carving at the Tomb Bicoplyles II in the frozen tundra of the Baring Straights .... [>:]

 

[clubsport]

Jason, more than happy to leave it there, what would the internet be without banter and differing opinions? [] On such a forum it would be churlish to dwell on my own investment experience,,I do hope the mortgage broking market picks up for you. []

 

[carreraboy]

ORIGINAL: Stewart H Everyone I took round the Ring in mine, the weekend before last (my first visit there) said they couldn't believe how planted the car felt and how well it handled. That's enough for me not to give a toss about what happens to the prices, even if it means I bought at the top of the market. It's a car you can love and unlike the ex, the love goes on and on and the RS won't run off with a chippy. []

Bit bitter there mate, had the same happen, but went on the rebound, little boy in a chocolate shop! errr or should that be sweet shop ....[8D] Is this the Chippy?