Another values thread ....

[ChrisW]

Do we believe them ?

There are a lot of cars for sale, and most at amazing prices ... or ask for price.

The rare stuff is still bringing good money, and some stuff is on the rise --- 2.7 Carrera etc as 2.7RS prices drag them --- and people get to know what they really are. But still only to a quarter of the price of a 2.7RS ..

But CGT's jumping from £300k to £500k ?

I don't believe that I am treading on anybody's toes here

 

[Damen]

Hi Chris

The days of a good £300k GCT are long gone. I know of two really good cars that have sold in the last month and they went for £520 and 550k respectively.

Damen

 

[ChrisW]

Then where does it stop, and when ?

 

[clubsport]

That's the whole point of moves in asset prices like this.......you see strong price action at high prices as people feel they missed out on the upward trend.

We will only know where the high point was in hind sight.

Maybe it will be a rate hike in US and Uk next spring ( as currently expected)? Hopefully not a recession from fears of economic slowdown from a terrorist attack.

However, this time compared to the early '90's rates will not rise at such a rate and will remain historically low for some time.

We also have a different dynamic in that there is more foreign interest in these cars than before.

Normally what you see in a correction, is a buyer strike as they do not want to try and catch a falling knife!

If a 964 RS is £150k (?) and we run out of buyers for a fundamental reason such as a rate hike etc.... normally you wouldn't expect buyers to jump in at £130k...they might wait for stability or forced sellers.....if 100/2000 964RS came on the market next week... the forced sellers among total sellers may well move prices down.

But as we said, this is not necessarily a normal market with the effective globalisation of these cars in recent years.

3 things are clear, many of today's buyers are possibly not enthusiasts, but jumping on the bandwagon.....if prices fall and they don't make a return, they are not bothered about thin carpets and window glass....if they perceive a better investment opportunity they will jump to that asset class.

Certain low production, motorsport cars will remain blue chip......it's the lesser, massed produced models that have ridden up on the back of the desirable variants that could see a real correction. Spreads should continue to widen while current fundamentals are in place, especially for the best examples.

The final point we know is uncertainty, it is likely there is a correction at some point, but from where......if looking at a car as an asset class, you need to consider the cost of ownership, servicing, insurance etc.....on that basis it helps if you like driving or looking at the thing.
The last thing you need with an investment is endowment bias, where you become sentimental about it.......

So you probably need to be clear, if you have a car to enjoy or an investment at this price point.

 

[Hacki]

ORIGINAL: clubsport

...it's the lesser, massed produced models that have ridden up on the back of the desirable variants that could see a real correction. Spreads should continue to widen while current fundamentals are in place, especially for the best examples.

+1

 

[Melv]

Nice summary Clubbie! []

 

[964RS]

We only see the public sales. Those at auction and on specialist dealers are in plain view.

What we don't see are the cars that are going straight from import or collections straight to the investors. For example we are not seeing '93 RS prices because they are hotter than '96 RS's. This is why the public thinks 964s are more popular and are moving more. Not the case. I know an indie that sold FIVE 993 RS in a month a short while back - none were advertised. They were bought on commission or sold before advertising such is the demand.

Then we see a number of NGT's and RS's that haven't sold because the vendors/dealers keep putting up the asking price to keep pace with the rising market. They are falling into the trap of the buyer and hoping forthe maximum return whereas a number of cars have been shifted from one dealer to another and in some cases sold and returned to the dealer. The dealer then makes multiple sales within the same price hike.

It's interesting too that the 964's at the bottom end of the market with the rusty A pillars etc which were around the £12k mark have disappeared. I suspect that they are all landed with buyers that understand that the costs of restoration have not gone up in the same way and therefore to maximise the return at say £27k minimum for a good coupe today they are currently in preparation.

There are a LOT of 964s on ships heading to these shores right now. The world knows that the UK is a hot bed of buyers right now. Enquire about prices, which are set low to get you to call, and you get told that they will be sold at market value when they land.

 

[ChrisW]

I suppose we are all very lucky.

We have had a chance over the last years to own and experience first hand a wide range of genuinely interesting machinery.

Costs were invariably covered by value increases and there was very little risk.

For "mere mortals" is this really now an option ?

I always used to compare the price of special classic cars to that of special new cars.

£50k seemed be a magic number that would buy you a lot.

Would that be the price now for a nice 964 3.3 Turbo ?? or a 924 Carrera GT ??

But then maybe that's still the game I know which I would prefer of those two !!

 

[clubsport]

What is interesting with the rise in values, is that we seem to have most of the same congregation in the air cooled RS world.

Having bought at enthusiast level prices, not many of us have cashed in, those that have sold are either back in an interesting Porsche or added another to their Porschefolio of cars.

On the other hand with quite a few of these cars apparently having sold, there don't appear to me that many new members getting involved with the PCGB aircooled RS clique?

That is not a dig at PCGB, more an observation that the new owners may be collectors rather than enthusiasts?

 

[ChrisW]

And an interesting one at that ...

But we do know that a lot have gone overseas ... and they won't return given the duties paid to et them out there ....

So they must be getting rarer by the month !