What I normally say is that I see very few IMS failures in my 'already customer' base - well two! One dual and one single to date.
When we talk to customers for the first time because they have an IMS failure it is more likely to be a single race. We have probably helped about 10 to date.
In these there are no patterns to spot. Some are low mileage, some are high. Good service history and bad ... And so on. I would conclude its a factor of machining tolerance - which in turns affects the flow of oil into the IMS gallery that then causes bearing failure.
My advice is individual to a customer. If you are risk adverse then get it renewed.
The process of removing the excess oil is as important as replacing the bearing. If you want to reduce your risk further still, then replace with a ceramic coated bearing (standard bearing is £20, ceramic is £500!).
To keep risk low you will repeat this every 4-6years depending on your attitude to risk. If you coincide the bearing change with a clutch change then the additional cost is quite low.
KR Lee