Tom,
I think your photos are upside-down but I also think you are just about there. I've marked one of them up but I think you are within a fraction of a degree of being spot on. FWIW, the 'OT' on the flywheel on mine is not stamped in the same way as the 'OT' on the flywheel pictured on Clarks Garage. Just to help, someone has been there before you and put a helpful blob of tippex on the flywheel so you know you are in the right place (I've done exactly the same with mine as peering into that hole in the bellhousing is not easy).
Someone who is clever will be able to explain the maffs of the movement of a piston as it approaches TDC but it's to do with Tan x tending towards 0 as x tends towards 0 - i.e. the movement will be infinitesimally small as you move the crank past TDC. Go with the mark if you can as it will be more precise.
I can't imagine that this is the first time you have done this job but the balance shaft belts always confuse me more than the cam belt.
Oli.