future of our cars after 2040, the end of an era

[PSH]

Hi guys

I'm sure most here are now aware of the UK government's plans to make it illegal to sell both diesel and petrol cars in this country in just over 20 years time. I would guess(hope) that this is for new cars only to begin with and that the internal combustion engine as an entity will be slowly phased out over time, how long that is? no one knows but it's a certainty that this form of power is coming to an end. So the question is what will this do to the values of our cars over the next 10-15 years? after this time has no bearing for me personally as I'll probably be pushing up daisy's before 2040 anyway. They could go either way after 2040 depending on the law as it's written and on how easy it is to still buy petrol, clearly petrol stations will begin to disappear or supply mainly electric charge for the new breed of transport. Will, enthusiasts try to hang on to that feeling that only an internal combustion engine can fulfil and push prices up for what's left of the car world or will prices plummet making our cars worthless.....now that is a worrying thought, not so much for us but for those who invest millions in classic cars....is it indeed an end of an era?...

Pete

 

[MJB]

I think that the investment end of the old car movement will not be affected by this as so many of these cars are no longer functioning machines but simply objet d'art and have been so for some time. For instance, I was recently researching an old photograph of a Carrera RS for inclusion in the Porsche Pictures Past thread and found that although it had long existed in fully restored condition it had not been taxed or MOT'd for the last ten years.

If the projected scenario does play out investment cars may well actually increase in value but the position of 'middle ground' cars is less easy to project from here. However, let's not forget that a week is a long time in politics, never mind twenty plus years and that at present the government pronouncement asks more questions than it answers.

 

[PSH]

I think it may go the other way with such cars unable to run anywhere period, their appeal will diminish considerably, you can only fit a certain amount into a museum or rich man's personal collection. I accept that politics is a delicate thing but the point is 'the writing is on the wall', at some point in the not too distant future internal combustion engines will be banned from our roads. I had hoped that since we British are car mad that the UK may be one of the last places to do this, alas it seems that we may well take the lead....

 

[Contraband]

It's over 20 years from now... who cares about values?! Just get out and enjoy it now while you can...

 

[pse_SC]

It's over 20 years from now... who cares about values?! Just get out and enjoy it now while you can...

+1

 

[PSH]

ah, but value might be important....now I planned to keep my car for life and then when I'm gone the family can sell it, currently it's still an appreciating asset. However, if it's going to drop in value in years to come or even become worthless then thinking about the family instead of myself, perhaps I should sell sooner to put the sum raised away for them when I'm no longer here. These things need some thought, life is not all about me and what I want.

 

[Frenchy]

Another angle is that fuel,may become cheaper due to less demand, admittedly not freely available.
Long live the internal combustion injun !
Or it may be banned.
Maybe someone may come up with dodgy stills out in the sticks where we can buy it, think Yankee prohibition

In the meantime enjoy them !

 

[GeoffB]

Tin hat on,I'll go and fill up the turbo and camper while I still can??

 

[GeoffB]

Why worry, not so many years ago our government pushed us all into diesels. Particulates were well known then,I remember the discussions before we put the diesel into the S type Jag. Diesels of today bear no resemblance to those of years ago. So we all go electric,who's going to pay for the infrastructure in supporting charge points in inner cities for instance. Many tower blocks, high density housing have more than one car per household,where they all going to get charged. What happens to road tax,none coming in from electric where's the money coming from? It will all change just enjoy the car now??

 

[zcacogp]

It's a very interesting question but there are too many factors involved for us to be able to predict anything. The classic car industry will continue without a doubt - it's too well-rooted not to. However very few classic cars are used as daily transport (I am unusual in this respect) and they will probably become more and more cossetted. Let's remember what happened to the equine industry when the first cars appeared; horses died out slowly as daily transport but the industry simply changed to become what it is now, and the average horse nowadays is a much healthier, better looked-after and happier animal than it was 150 years ago. The classic car industry will, I predict, go the same way with the very best cars being pampered much more than they are now.

And what of 944's? They will continue, but the next 20 years will continue the attrition of their number from the roads.

However Martin's comment about a week being a long time in politics is very accurate and I'll wager that the notion that IC cars will be illegal to sell in 20 years time will be knocked around and changed many, many times between then and now. The electric car industry is in it's infancy and major changes will have to be made before 2040 if they are to dominate our roads. For one thing, there isn't enough copper in the entire world to replace every car in the UK with an electric one (a fact that I was told by a very good friend who is a metals trader. I trust his facts a very, very large amount.) There is yet no standard charging point, connector or rate, the whole charging infrastructure is in a pre-infancy state, the government will need to overhaul the whole tax system if it is to lose revenue from both road tax and fuel tax (neither is charged on electric cars at the moment) to name but a few of the current barriers to widespread adoption of electric cars.

And for the investment angle? Pete, don't fuss over it. The best advice on ANY form of investment is to buy what you like. Anyone who buys a car as an investment is either a much cleverer person than me or is kidding themselves. In the time of ownership of my S2 (11 years) it may have doubled in value, if I'm lucky. In the same period other investments have gone up four or five fold. If you want to drive an interesting and enjoyable car that doesn't cost very much, buy a 944. If you want to invest money in the hope of a return, do some careful reading and analysis and put your money elsewhere. Sorry to be so blunt Pete but you're barking up the wrong tree with your last comment! As Contraband (and I hate it when people don't put a name in their profile!) said, get out there and enjoy it while you can! You have a very nice 951, stop fussing about how much it's worth. []


Oli.

P.S. As an aside, has anyone driven a modern electric car? I haven't, but I have driven one of those Nissan electric vans. To say it was a revelation would be an understatement - it was simply terrific! I will deeply mourn the loss of the IC engine in my daily transport but the replacement may be better than we could possibly hope.

 

[DrSimon]

This news has rapidly changed the way I see my car. I recently spent (for me) a considerably large amount of money on a 997.2 turbo. I love the car but as well as being a fantastic vehicle to drive I also saw it as a bit of a long-term investment and, therefore, should aim to keep the mileage as low as possible. However, since the news broke I've realised that I should simply enjoy the car for what it is: a beautifully engineered piece of machinery - designed to be driven and enjoyed while I can. I'm not bothered now about the car as an investment. It feels somehow liberating.

Simon

 

[alastairp]

P.S. As an aside, has anyone driven a modern electric car? I haven't, but I have driven one of those Nissan electric vans. To say it was a revelation would be an understatement - it was simply terrific! I will deeply mourn the loss of the IC engine in my daily transport but the replacement may be better than we could possibly hope.

My daily driver is an Audi A3 eTron (company car).
I was an EV sceptic until I test drove this hybrid which has a 100hp electric motor and 150hp 1.4l petrol engine and automatic transmission.
Performance is more than adequate with several modes available, including "boost" where both petrol and electric power can be used to provide around 200hp for short period such as overtaking.
However, my decision to purchase was based more on fiscal issues:

1. At the time, there was a £5,000 government grant available reducing the list price from £35K to £30K. (now £2.5K I think)
2. My personal tax position (benefit in kind) resulted in a significant saving compared to my previous less expensive 99g CO2 Audi A1 1.6TDi. (at that time, 5% instead of 13%)
3. The business can write-off the full cost of an ULEV (ultra low emissions vehicle) against corporation tax - purchasing three of these vehicles saved corporation tax which would have otherwise been payable on £90K. Tax will, however, be payable at point of disposal on the value of the vehicle at that time.

I have had the car since September 2015 and have now covered around 40,000 miles without any problems. The computer indicates that my usage over this period has been 67% emissions-free (electric) and 33% fuelled by petrol.
My daily commute is around 28 miles each way and I can get around 20 miles out of a charge with normal driving. The computer regularly shows overall fuel consumption for the trip of well over 100mpg.
I have a charge point at home and at work and charge the vehicle whilst parked at work and overnight at home.
A nice feature is being able to programme the heating in the car to come on in the morning before you leave for work whilst the car is plugged in. This means the car is toasty warm and de-frosted when you get into it.
Previously a frequent visitor to the petrol station forecourt, I now need to fill up only every couple of weeks or so. Fairly small tank, so I can usually only squeeze in around £37 worth of fuel.
When I first had the car and was trying to see what I could get out of a tank with careful use. I saw well in excess of 1,000 miles before needing to refuel. £37 for 1000 miles seems not bad.
Battery range is definitely reduced during winter months/ periods of cold weather.
I definitely see the hybrid as the way forward in the transition period until fully electric vehicles are able to provide meet the range and charging period expectations of the motoring public.
Alastair

 

[alastairp]

I should also add that the torque available from standstill with an electric motor is infinitely better than a conventional internal combustion engine, so you will outrun almost anything when pulling away from the lights.

 

[Peter_Bull]

That's a very interesting appraisal Alastair.

Out of interest - what does it cost you to actually charge the vehicle each time?

 

[blade7]

I should also add that the torque available from standstill with an electric motor is infinitely better than a conventional internal combustion engine, so you will outrun almost anything when pulling away from the lights.

Including a 911 turbo with launch control ?

 

[DrSimon]

I tried that for the first time last weekend and almost passed out. Violent is the only word to describe it. Saying that, a Tesla in insane mode would probably beat it, although lacking the fun theatrics of an IC engine.

 

[jellytott]

imagine....British summers and Steam Rally's in 2040 our Classics will continue along side steam engines with aside show of de-funked combustion engine's vehicles, I hope they still have beer tents and hog roasts too as I will be looking down from heaven giving my approval from above with the rest of you on my Porsche 944 forum cloud !!!

Shame that the next generation in the future with not be able to enjoy our present classic toys......progress NOPE !

 

[TTM]

They are all trying to force EVs down our throats like they did with diesel engines until they found out it was terrible for other than environmental reasons.
Wait until they finally acknowledge that batteries are an absolute environmental disaster in the same manner that nuke residues cannot be recycled. How about building dozens more nuclear power plants to supply all the electricity needed when EVs will be mostly used in western countries?
The next generation will pay that bill, but in the meantime some political greenies that should be hung up straight away keep playing with our tax money.
Unleaded-only engines would not be a such huge problem if we planted as many trees as needed, FFS!

 

[John Sims]

It is an interesting conundrum which will, no doubt, cause a dip in Classic Car values in the short term and perhaps overall. I don't know how much a good steam tractor is worth but I doubt it is as much as a Ferrari 250 GTO in last months market.

My understanding, and the only logical conclusion, is the ban applies to new vehicles only. We should be able to buy and sell our old smokers for as long as we want.

The availability of fuel will certainly change as the demand will reduce significantly. Pumps and tanks will be removed to make space for high speed charge points and sub-stations.

The price of petrol will escalate dramatically as the infrastructure changes. Reduced demand will mean all volume related cost savings enjoyed currently by the fuel industry will evaporate and the power of competition will diminish. You may well still have a petrol car but I doubt you will want the cost of filling it up to use it.

As you consider the advantages of electric vehicles (noted above), why would you want to trudge around in a slow (by comparison) noisy, dirty, petrol car? You could be swooshing at almost unbelievable velocity in a clean, quiet, spacious, safe and comfortable electric vehicle? The previous comparison between steam power and petrol is very significant.

I would also anticipate advantages through driverless technology turning lanes of the motorway into auto pilot lanes. This could prompt the allowance of increased speeds as a lane on the motorway would become a virtual train and (subject to the stability of the technology) able to progress faster more safely with less hold ups etc etc.

As noted above, it is all a nonsense. Energy is energy; just changing the way it is converted doesn't magically remove it's impact on the environment, it just gives us the opportunity to poison our planet in a different way.

All that aside I am quite excited by the prospect of affordable electric cars with practical ranges and charge times. What's not to like? About all I can find is they don't make a lot of noise, and smell, and involve pumping noxious fluids around the place hoping they stay where intended. Personally these are all things I can happily do without. But then I am older than 14 ....just.

 

[John Sims]

On the plus side Peter, I have every confidence that electric conversion kits will be available for petrol cars. One day you can turn that old anchor under the bonnet into a coffee table and stick in a 5000 mega joule turbine converter brushless GT ex Formula E power plant. The torque will probably turn the original transmission to mush at the press of a button...literally.