future of our cars after 2040, the end of an era

[graham.webb]

Simple answer is that, as usual, the politicians don't understand the technology in this and so it is unlikely to happen. The prediction (or statement of intent) is made from a position of ignorance. Informed opinion offers us the view that the resultant increase in demand for electricity will require 7 more nuclear power stations or 10,000 wind turbines. On our recent showing we're unlikely get either of these done.

So, with the inevitable power cuts the roads will be clogged with EVs queuing at charge points and waiting for the power to come back on

Furthermore we are told that the metals used in the batteries (lithium etc) are a finite resource and so the whole idea is likely to be unsustainable in the long term unless some new battery technology emerges.

I'd be more inclined to take this seriously if we were also discussing hydrogen fuel cells...some of the manufacturers are already on to this.

 

[graham tompkins]

Simple answer is that, as usual, the politicians don't understand the technology in this and so it is unlikely to happen. The prediction (or statement of intent) is made from a position of ignorance. Informed opinion offers us the view that the resultant increase in demand for electricity will require 7 more nuclear power stations or 10,000 wind turbines. On our recent showing we're unlikely get either of these done.

So, with the inevitable power cuts the roads will be clogged with EVs queuing at charge points and waiting for the power to come back on

Furthermore we are told that the metals used in the batteries (lithium etc) are a finite resource and so the whole idea is likely to be unsustainable in the long term unless some new battery technology emerges.

I'd be more inclined to take this seriously if we were also discussing hydrogen fuel cells...some of the manufacturers are already on to this.

Yep, hysterical overreacting...Gove is a sycophantic grease ball simply lsliming up the bums of the latest fad environmentalists..totally impractical . BBC typical irresponsible reportage...so keen to appear PC and restore their credibility after numerous scandals preceded even by their tacit guilt in the child abuse cases.
If you worry about your car being devalued...move to Cuba

 

[geoff Ives]

So. We are going to save the planet by going to electric cars....... Powered by what? Lithium batteries? The lithium has to be mined, transported to the country capable of making it into batteries. The batteries (not an inconsiderable weight) have to be transported to the factories building the cars. What sort of transport? Are we going back to sailing ships?
Right. We have transported the lithium, made the batteries and built the cars, how about charging them? How are we going to generate the power?

We have saved the planet from the noxious emissions from cars. What about trucks and busses? Just think about the battery energy needed to power a HGV.

This is all happening in 20 years.... the average term of office of a politician is between 5 and 10 years.

 

[Contraband]

As a schoolboy I used to watch SPACE 1999 and wondered what technology would actually be like when we got to 1999. Looking back to the millennium my expectations were not met!
Now the internal combustion engine has been given a USE BY date; I would have hoped to have had a flying car by 2040!!
If manufacturers are not allowed to sell new I.C. cars after 2040, you can bet there is no way they will want left with cars in stock anywhere near this date... I would imagine that maybe 3 or more years before this date they will have switched manufacturing over to EV exclusively.
In fact, I'll wager you it'll be nearer 2035 !

As for car values plummeting? Hopefully.

Archie

 

[graham tompkins]

As a schoolboy I used to watch SPACE 1999 and wondered what technology would actually be like when we got to 1999. Looking back to the millennium my expectations were not met!
Now the internal combustion engine has been given a USE BY date; I would have hoped to have had a flying car by 2040!!
If manufacturers are not allowed to sell new I.C. cars after 2040, you can bet there is no way they will want left with cars in stock anywhere near this date... I would imagine that maybe 3 or more years before this date they will have switched manufacturing over to EV exclusively.
In fact, I'll wager you it'll be nearer 2035 !

As for car values plummeting? Hopefully.

Archie

I'd stick with your comics if I were you....mind you Michael Gove is one and the BBC is his little show

 

[alanchester]

That's a very interesting appraisal Alastair.

Out of interest - what does it cost you to actually charge the vehicle each time?

I have a 100% electric vehicle as a daily. My commute is 80 miles round trip 5 days a week and I plug it in every night. I have seen my electricity bill increase by no more than £40 per month.
For an annual fee of £20 I have a card that lets me use hundreds of public charge points around the country for free. A rapid charge (50kw) typically will take 20mins for 80% charge.
I still use the 911's or Camper at the weekend.

I suppose we should keep an eye to this situation with the 2040 announcement and decide when to jump ship. I will probably be in the ground by then so will have made the jump before forced to.

 

[944Turbo]

There have been electric 944s running around for at least 10 years - earliest I remember (at least 15 years ago) was in the states on lead acid batteries with a battery filled trailer for extended range use. A quick google found several others.
Oil is actually pretty cheap currently and in plentiful supply - electricity is getting expensive and there were already shortages predicted. The heavily subsidised nuclear power station at Hinkley has taken at least 6 years to get to the point where construction can start - any others coming?
I think the ban is on pure petrol/diesel only and hybrids will be allowed, that will probably increase the appeal of classics. Given that oil out of the ground is not just used for petrol and diesel the cost may come down - the tax will go up to cover the shortfall with electric cars, though I don't doubt the government is already looking at funding that shortfall with either road pricing or additional tax on electricity.

I think that the vehicles sold up until 2040 which will still have at least 10 year lifespan so petrol diesel will be in place until at least 2050 - the hybrids will go a lot further into the future, so the demand will still be there - When the tech and infrastructure catches up there will be conversion kits and we may all be buzzing around in these by then

 

[wayne cook]

We could live in hope that by 2040 we have these.

 

[924Srr27l]

http://www.realclearfuture.com/articles/2016/08/29/dont_count_out_the_internal_combustion_engine_111937.html

R

 

[tref]

I looked at other options before converting Bomber to LPG. To me the needs of an electric car are so very different to that of petrol, conversion didn't make sense. You end up with a substantially under-performing electric car, or an electric car in the husk of a 944. Eitherway you loose the traits of a 944 that make it the pleasure it is. Brown's gas and hydrogen were serious contenders for me, and are still possible, and offer the option of "home grown" fuel, abeit using electricty, and I'm not sure about the safety/green credentials, but it is possible, and using a substantially* unchanged 944 engine.
I settled on LPG, and put 35 litres of petrol in every 2-3 months... Ok, that is probably more than many of you put in that don't have alternative fuels! To put it into perspective, my daily commute is in excess of 50 miles, I estimate I am now doing 20k miles a year (it was 30).
So if petrol becomes scare, I suspect LPG will as well, but hydrogen conversion is a possibility. If it works as well as LPG does in terms of performance, I shan't be complaining.
*I say a 944 could run on hydrogen with a substantially unchanged engine, however the changes that are necessary are significant, and the life expectancy is unknown. When I looked into it I know I was looking at different valve materials, and that was not looking cheap. LPG has been proven in a 944 engine many times, hydrogen, to my knowledge, hasn't - but if anyone has information on that I would be very interested to see it - I have a spare engine!