No problem - I love flicking through data like that myself!! In fact, last night I got my history file out to check the price of a part I bought last year - then just sat flicking through previous owner invoices, I love it - especially find I find something I've missed!!ORIGINAL: Indi9xx Thanks Hallsy, that has satisfied my statistical autism for now
Porsche 944 Prices - The Future....
- Thread starter MartinRS2K
- Start date
Indi9xx
New member
Some of you may be sick to death of this, and others genuinely interested.. But being a statistics nerd, last night I had a play with some numbers from Hallsy's list of new values for Porsche 944 models. Once I laid the numbers out in a spreadsheet I asked a question I do not think I ever asked myself before, which is how exactly did Porsche arrive at these prices? Very little in pricing is down to manufacturing cost, unless you are dealing with a easy to come by product in a crowded competative market, so the 1989 Lux being £25,990 and the Turbo being £39,892 has little to do with the difference between the manufacturing cost difference between the two models, it is more likely more psychological than that. Porsche would have not wanted everyone to buy a turbo and no one buy a lux. Likewise they needed to sell Turbo's otherwise the costs to the company is lost tooling and development would have been massive. But as we know, from there being many more lux models built than Turbo's, someone at Porsche got the pricing very right. So I investigated the numbers a little deeper and a patern began to emerge as I looked deeper into the relationship of prices of new 944 models and the ratio of RRP between models. For the sake of my model I made the prices relative tot he 944 turbo. What I found is that for the first year of production, Porsche discounted the turbo model relative to the lux, it being only 1.39 times the price of the lux at £25,311 with the lux at 18,234, but after that year the price differential settled down to between 1.5 and 1.55 times the price of the lux. So, for the sake of argument, I have called this the desirability index. Back when these cars were new, Porsche would have wanted the Turbo to sell less than the lux, if they had sold equally they would have known they had a problem with their pricing. None of the buyers were poor, as back then the price of a turbo would have bought you a 3 bed house in many parts of the country.. So you would almost believe that someone who could afford a lux, could probably have afforded a turbo if they had pushed the boat out.. So the basis for desirability, would be a little like now, where people are prepared to pay X amount for a turbo, which is more than Y for an S2 and this is less than Z for the lux. But what is interesting, is if you apply those ratios of desirability to the current market. So, lets just suppose that the 944 Turbo which ThrottleShop had for sale which is no longer on piston heads sold for the advertised price (this is almost not relavant as what I am interested here is the relationship of prices), which was £16,995 If you apply the ratios of desirability, linked to that turbo price you get the following prices for 1989 Porsche models. 944 Lux £11,072 944 S2 £13.336 944 S2 Cab £15,640 944 Turbo £16.995 This is of course making assumptions that all 4 1989 cars have the same mileage, condition etc.. But what is interesting here is that we obviously have something wrong. Either, Porsche index of desirability and the fact that they believed in 1989 that a turbo was 1.5 times more than a lux is not right, but then the ratio of cars sold would have been completely different, or maybe I need to create another ratio which will influence the desirability ratio, based on "how many are left" Or, the prices people sell their lux, S2 and S2 Cab's for are too low... Which is very possible, because I bet everyone bases their sales prices on "I wonder what everyone else is selling them for" and an element of "Oh my god its been a month and no one had bought it, so I better lower the price" Anyway, this is all a bit of a folly really, just a boring sunday evening distracted to do some nerdy analysis of original sales figures, it probably means nothing at all, there are factors which are just not included or even thought about, such as how rare any model is right now compared to when the cars were new... Which may be interesting, if I could find the sales volume numbers for each model, year by year, for the UK market I could maybe factor in some models being more scarce now than they were when new. Just thought it might be interesting to talk about how Porsche came to price the cars when new, how the price drove sales of each model, and why that desirability might be different now. But I did find it interesting that the 944 lux in Cheshire is more than the ratio used in my spreadsheet, but does have abnormally low miles, which may make it worth that £1k more. Do I feel I know the market and how to price a 944 any better than I did last week?.. Erm.. no..
MartinRS2K
Active member
Excellent post Jon, I'm sure one of the Porsche Buyers Guide books has the production figures for the different 944 models. I will have a look later and see if I can find them. If you add in rarity and desirability then this may adjust the prices a little bit, or maybe the Lux, S2 and Cab are at the correct prices but the Turbo and Turbo S need to go higher []
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pauljmcnulty
Active member
We aim to help. [
] I guess that I look at things a little differently as I'm asked about values, for insurance, decisions over restoration etc., more than for sale prices. They are different. When valuing it's a simple "what would it cost to get a replacement". Advertised prices, with a bit off for haggling, is fine there as it doesn't matter whether the car sold or not. Selling a car, far more factors come in to play: location, colour, thing that make no difference to the insurance valuation can have a massive impact on a selling price. I think the differential between models is different when they are new, and will be pretty irrelevant now. There's no doubt that a turbo S will be significantly more desirable than an '89 or '90 turbo: if all other factors are equal probably 30% more, maybe? When new, the turbo s was effectively the same price as an '89 or '90 turbo. Similarly, an '86 turbo might have an advantage over a '90 turbo to some people, despite being 30% cheaper when new.I'm finding myself drawn more and more to buying another 944 to use as a daily. I did this a few years ago with my early car but it is now a particularly hostile environment and used purely for competition. My ideal would be a late model Turbo. A much more modern and useable interior than my old car but still something a bit special. My existing 944 does not have the aids that I'd want and expect from a daily: PAS, ABS, full electrics, AirCon, decent stereo, proper fans/demisters etc. The problem is that to get a minter late Turbo is now going to be at a cost of £12k+ (possibly +++) so I'm considering getting another square dash 2.5 so at the very least I can parts share with my other car if needs be. There aren't many cars out there that would meet the requirement frankly. I certainly don't need a project of any kind, keeping on top of the rally 944 is enough of a job as it is. Wonder what kind of cash I'd be looking at for a 2.5 with all mod cons, solid shell, nice paint, decent history etc.
Rtwoodstock
New member
Not sure this seller with the new ad for a Turbo on Pistonheads has got the memo on Turbo prices - http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/porsche/944/porsche-944-turbo-1987/3636087
MartinRS2K
Active member
Doesn't look too bad in the pictures, but I'd want to see the condition of the bodywork and sills especially as it has rot cut out from one side and no mention of the wings. Seems to have been serviced and had it's belts replaced (again a good check of the paperwork). Needs the twist wheels removed and replaced with D90's IMO Is it worth £7k, yes if the above are fine, but I don't class it as a car worth lots more and not a £10k car again IMO
Shark
New member
Lovely car that.. Glad you are happy with it. Can you confirm to all the good folks on the forum that it was exactly as described? RE the latest car on PH, Martin is right.. it is priced accordingly. Potential there for improvement and even a little profit, but there is not much left in it. Did any of your eagle eyes spot the very rare, very expensive and desirable options on that car?.. Have another look..it has about £5000 of special order in the cabin...ORIGINAL: Patch234This now being my car
The grey '87 Turbo on PH, I'd agree that from the advert and pictures it looks to be reasonably priced - but then it does sound like it has had a lot of remedial work done, and if the bodywork is good, I don't really see what would hold it back - other than having more than 100k miles? I've not spotted the special order extras yet - I'll have another look!!
It's got full leather, seat backs and rear seats. Paul
Indi9xx
New member
[
] Not a bad looking car.. I would agree it could do with the twists removing, but this one swings on just how well replaced and repaired the sill and bodywork were performed.. A crappy installed sill is as bad as one rotton from front to rear.. perhaps even worse, as its easier to cut out rust than poorly welded in metal. Tempting car though at that price. Does anyone know anything about the Turbo S on pistonheads for £9k in need of recomissioning???
MartinRS2K
Active member
If its the Grey one it was sold on here for about £4500 less than 6 weeks ago Both posted at the same time [
]Is it this one that was discussed a little while ago? https://www.porscheclubgb.com/forum/tm.asp?m=858090&mpage=1&key=󑟪ORIGINAL: Indi9xx[
MartinRS2K
Active member
Yes that's the one
Patch234
New member
Well, I don't really feel the need, nor see the logic of discussing our business transaction here. But, seeing as you are asking directly and the thread could do with an interval breakORIGINAL: SharkLovely car that.. Glad you are happy with it. Can you confirm to all the good folks on the forum that it was exactly as described?ORIGINAL: Patch234This now being my car
- I am happy with what I paid for and the service received. I've not seen the car yet, I don't return to the UK for a break for another 2 months. So it was my brother that saw to the collection from the transporter. He then cleaned and polished and dried the car before tucking it away in my garage. He tells me the interior is literally as new Here she blows...
Rtwoodstock
New member
Ignoring anything else - You have to say is a cracking looking car. Which hopefully will bring a lot of pleasure.
Patch234
New member
I read this earlier today. It s interesting to see what guys here were saying about cars to purchase now in 2012 .... The first being a 944 Turbo, amongst others... Link here > [link=http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&t=1221201&d=12013.81849&nmt=]Pistonheads[/link]
pauljmcnulty
Active member
Ohhh, that looks good! [] Worth splashing out on a new expension tank, though. It's not the end of the world price-wise and will finish the engine bay off beautifully. I love the later 2-tone interiors over my pit-of-doom black, or the solid blues and burgundies that are a bit much in my opinion. Great to see nothing's been messed with inside: what's wrong with the original steering wheel anyway! []
] Worth splashing out on a new expension tank, though. It's not the end of the world price-wise and will finish the engine bay off beautifully. I love the later 2-tone interiors over my pit-of-doom black, or the solid blues and burgundies that are a bit much in my opinion. Great to see nothing's been messed with inside: what's wrong with the original steering wheel anyway! []
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